Recently the question on everyone’s lips is “are we at the top of the market”? Mortgage loan rates have gone up 50% in the last few months, and I’m seeing rates in the low 5% range for people even with excellent credit. However, personally I don’t think we are at the top – I believe price increases have to slow down, but we still don’t have enough inventory. According to NAR, nationally home sales slipped 2.7% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, but locally we are still very tight on inventory as the numbers below reflect.
I personally think the decline in sales is something we’ve been dealing with for years because there just aren’t enough new homes being built, exacerbated by the current supply chain issues. Do I think that prices will continue to rise as quickly, I do not. Even with inventory shortages, I don’t see how prices can continue to rise at double digit rates when incomes are not increasing that quickly. This is especially true with rising interest rates and if inflation continues unchecked.
I’m also asked a lot about whether we are about to see a housing price bust like 2008 and 2009. I even more doubt that scenario. That was fueled by adjustable rate mortgages kicking in, credit default swaps and lenders being allowed to choose their appraiser. Those things aren’t around now – I don’t remember the last time I saw an adjustable rate mortgage and lenders use clearinghouses to assign appraisers.
Check out stats for your market below, and if you don’t see them, let me know and I will add!
| Median Price | Change since last year % | Sales | Change since last year | Active Inventory | Change since last year | Days On Market | Change since last year | |
| Alexandria City | $565,000 | 13% | 94 | -13% | 71 | -23% | 39 | 18% |
| Arlington County | $650,000 | 4% | 291 | 0% | 308 | -29% | 21 | -22% |
| Clarke County | $507,990 | 7% | 25 | -11% | 16 | -11% | 19 | -50% |
| Fairfax City | $625,000 | 6% | 33 | -15% | 25 | 19% | 10 | -58% |
| Fairfax County | $660,000 | 10% | 1410 | -8% | 780 | -27% | 13 | -28% |
| Falls Church City | $1,115,000 | 31% | 9 | -55% | 3 | -77% | 17 | 6% |
| Fauquier County | $565,000 | 13% | 94 | -13% | 71 | -23% | 39 | 18% |
| Federick County VA | $373,000 | 8% | 119 | -2% | 144 | -5% | 25 | 4% |
| King George County | $408,000 | 5% | 35 | -17% | 38 | -16% | 27 | 13% |
| Loudoun County | $680,000 | 16% | 576 | -12% | 276 | -6% | 9 | -18% |
| Manassas City | $412,813 | 10% | 60 | 22% | 33 | 10% | 8 | -68% |
| Manassas Park City | $415,000 | 13% | 17 | 6% | 9 | -40% | 11 | 0% |
| Prince William County | $525,000 | 18% | 641 | -3% | 249 | -17% | 9 | 29% |
| Stafford County | $459,000 | 6% | 245 | 0% | 164 | 28% | 12 | 9% |
| Warren County | $355,000 | 19% | 60 | 7% | 55 | -25% | 26 | -19% |
| Jefferson County WV | $367,490 | 17% | 88 | -7% | 94 | 7% | 20 | -23% |
| Frederick County MD | $443,564 | 8% | 391 | -9% | 248 | -30% | 14 | -18% |
| Montgomery County MD | $538,295 | 7% | 1037 | -9% | 666 | -33% | 16 | -27% |
| Baltimore County MD | $305,000 | 9% | 921 | -2% | 586 | -25 | 18 | -22 |
| Washington County MD | $284,750 | 12% | 172 | 2% | 165 | -20 | 28 | -15 |
| Baltimore City MD | $210,000 | 11% | 995 | 3% | 1291 | -18 | 35 | 15 |
| Washington DC | $664,000 | 5% | 905 | -11% | 1499 | -7 | 29 | -6 |
As a buyer in this market, it’s wise to be informed about the appraisal process. Here’s some information that may help! If you are thinking about selling, here are some tips to help make the most of this spring market.
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